When we look at the entertainment and media market its best to include all broadcasting mediums ranging from newspapers, magazines, TV, and radio to popular forms of entertainment like film, music, and books.
The growth rate of entertainment spending shows that growth will come from internet video which is projected to grow by 12% in 2020. In comparison, newspaper publishing is expected to shrink on an annual basis by 3%, and this number is slowing as the decade was brutal for the newspaper industry, gutting most of the industry. Billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Mark Benioff scooped up long-time media brands in dire straits transferring ownership of the Washington Post, and Time Magazine.
Newspapers generated 87 billion dollars in 2017, as print revenue is shifting quickly as the global newspaper industry quickly migrates towards digital platforms. In 2015, there were four billion newspaper readers and 1 billion digital consumers of the same news. The 2020 numbers are projected to be 3 billion digital, and 2 billion print readers globally, we think those numbers are high, and the newspaper goes the way of the payphone, as digital morphs into a replacement cycle for information of record for much local news.
Digital newspaper revenue grew 10 percent annually from 2015 to 2020 and is expected to exceed those numbers into the next decade, whereas non-digital (newspaper) is forecast to experience a continued decline.
Consistent with the global figures, the newspaper industry is expected to decline considerably in the coming years. In 2015, Americans spent an average of about 20 minutes per day reading newspapers, but as of 2018, American consumers only dedicate 10 minutes to a newspaper, and these numbers continue to fall quickly.
This change in consumption is reflected in the industry’s employment and revenue figures. Employment is undergoing critical cuts, with figures down from 300,000 employees in 2010 to 150,000 in 2016. Revenue of the newspaper industry in the U.S. is forecast to drop from 30 billion in 2018 to 20 billion in 2021.
Newspaper publishers’ key source of revenue, advertising, has shrunk in previous years, and spending is expected to fall to around 15 billion by 2020, after peaking at over 55 billion in 2006. This is a dramatic drop in the industry shows the disruption online advertising has had on the advertising sector itself, totally transforming the revenue and margins.
It is clear from all the data we see, that video is making the largest move in all mediums, while the decline in newspapers has slowed. We also confirm from the data that advertising tools created by Google and Facebook have completely remade the advertising business.
Many of these facts we know, and see as part of our daily lives which predominantly include the domination of our handset as the key tool of our daily life. The near 70% decline in annual newspaper ad revenue in the previous decade has transferred directly into the coffers of Google, Facebook, and Apple.
We see value in branded newspapers in smaller towns across the USA, and think Bezos and Benioff see a pendulum that has swung too far as disruption in the advertising sector finds balance into our new decade.